Can Common Sense Spoil Apple’s Day?

I read with amusement today this BusinessWeek article titled, “Can Apple Spoil Microsoft’s Day.”

According to BusinessWeek, Apple is banking on the Windows 7 launch as its “best chance in years to win over longtime PC users.”

BusinessWeek describes the Apple strategy here:

In the coming weeks, Apple is expected to hit those computer buyers with advertising aimed at luring them to its Macs. It will likely make the case that Macs are less susceptible to viruses and are best suited to its popular iPods and iPhones. And look for it to poke fun at Microsoft for making XP owners go through an arduous process to upgrade to Windows 7—one that includes backing up all their files to an external drive, reformatting their PC, and then reinstalling all of their old programs, assuming they still have the CDs. “Any user that reads all those steps is probably going to freak out. If you have to go through all that, why not just buy a Mac?” says Schiller.

Now, perhaps I am not the sharpest tool in the shed, but I really don’t follow Apple’s thinking here.

I’m not even talking about the fact that Apple is dusting off the decade-old “Macs are more secure than Windows” message which has already been debunked multiple times since the Vista days.

Nor am I talking about how as an iPod and iPhone user running Windows 7 on my home PC, I don’t think I’m missing anything that my esteemed Mac colleagues are enjoying.

What I really don’t get is this: Because it’s difficult to upgrade to Windows 7 from Windows XP, you should buy a Mac instead.

Let’s see:

1. To upgrade from XP to Windows 7, one needs to pay a few hundred dollars for the OS, back up all their documents (using Windows Easy Transfer I would presume), do a clean install of the operating system (which includes formatting their drive for them), install applications, and copy their data back.
2. To switch from a PC running XP to a Mac, one needs to pay a few thousand dollars for the Mac, back up all their documents, acquire applications for the Mac (since their Windows apps won’t work), install applications, copy their data back, and finally learn how to use a Mac.

Is switching to a Mac that much easier than upgrading from XP to Windows 7? It sure is a heck of a lot costly though!

But that may be a subjective argument. Fine. However, the more fundamental head-scratcher is this:

Why would these (presumably) mainstream XP users switch to a Mac now?

I mean, if billions of advertising dollars and three years worth of “Get a Mac” commercials didn’t convince them then, why would it now? Just because Microsoft releases it’s strongest operating system in years that Gartner proclaims is “all but inevitable“, this represents Apple’s best conversion chance in years? Really? Even better than the dog days of Windows Vista?

Am I missing something here or is there too much hyperbole flying around Cupertino lately?

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